SHCOMP, 26 December, 2024
SP500
Returns
Data density with normal and t(3)
Value-at-Risk
Expexted Shortfall
Risk forecasts
| Type | HS | MA | EWMA | GARCH | tGARCH | EVT | ModelRisk | Mean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VaR | 2.6 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 2.3 |
| ES | 3.6 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 2.7 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 2.9 |
Price drop given year
Probability of price drop
Autocorrelations
Quantile-Quantile plots
Extreme risk
Daily market risk forecasts and analysis© All rights reserved, Jon Danielsson,